Unit 4 · Statistics and Probability

8 Blue out of 16 — "Certain"? "Equally Likely"?

Lesson 6 of 6

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16 discs: 5R, 2G, 8B, 1Y. Statement 1 (certain blue) fails — P(blue)=½≠1. Statement 2 (equally likely blue or not blue) is true — P(blue)=8/16=½=P(not blue). Statement 3 (possible yellow) is true — P(yellow)=1/16>0. Answer: 2 and 3 only.

Chapters

0:00Introduction
0:23The Question
1:21Analysing Statement 1 (The Concept of Certainty)
1:59Analysing Statement 2 (Equally Likely vs Complements)
2:26Analysing Statement 3 & final selection
2:56Strategic exam tip
3:27Correct answer

Question

Oliver has a box of 16 coloured discs.

  • 5 discs are red.
  • 2 discs are green.
  • 8 discs are blue.
  • 1 disc is yellow.

He picks one disc at random from the box.

Which of these statements are correct?

  1. It is certain that he picks a blue disc.

  2. It is equally likely that he picks a blue disc or does not pick a blue disc.

  3. It is possible for him to pick a yellow disc.

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